Horse Racing Insights from Andrew Mount: October 19 Selections
The world of horse racing is filled with excitement, unpredictability, and the potential for great reward, especially when guided by knowledgeable experts. One such expert is Andrew Mount, a leading horse racing advisor who lends his expertise to various Racing Post publications, including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook. With a keen eye for value bets, Andrew employs effective systems and statistics to identify promising horses. In this article, we delve into his latest selections for Saturday, October 19th, focusing on four key races at Ascot, Catterick, and Stratford.
Stratford 2:55 PM – Strong Belle
Andrew’s System: Nigel Twiston-Davies in October
When it comes to success during this time of year, trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is a reliable name. Since 2004, backing his runners in October has resulted in 269 winners out of 1301 runners—yielding an impressive 20.7% strike rate and a profit of £120.07 to a £1 level stake. For Class 4 races, the figures are even more impressive, showcasing a profit of £199.62 from 439 runners.
Horse Selection: Strong Belle
Despite a disappointing pull-up performance at Kelso in May, Strong Belle drops down from a Class 2 handicap hurdle to a more manageable Class 4 level today. This transition, combined with Twiston-Davies’ strong October record, makes her a compelling choice in this race.
Ascot 4:35 PM – Bopedro
Andrew’s System: The Balmoral Handicap’s Draw Bias
The Balmoral Handicap often favors runners drawn low. In fact, nine of the last ten winners have come from stall 10 or lower. Additionally, the last decade shows that winners had their last race between one and 27 days prior. By leveraging these patterns, one can see that this system has produced nine winners from 64 bets, resulting in a profit of £111.00 to a £1 stake.
Horse Selection: Bopedro
Last year’s fourth-place finisher, Bopedro, has shown solid form lately, performing notably against the bias in the Cambridgeshire and finishing third in a 7f heritage handicap at Ascot. Given the trends surrounding the Balmoral Handicap, Bopedro stands out as a strong bet, especially with a focus on either an Each-Way play or considering a ‘dutching’ strategy along with his well-placed competitors.
Catterick 4:45 PM – Glorious Angel
Andrew’s System: Grant Tuer’s Fillies and Mares
Trainer Grant Tuer has made a name for himself with fillies and mares in handicaps, boasting an 18.1% win rate since early 2019. His runners have generated a notable profit of £25.27, with expected metrics suggesting he should have about 20 winners. In this Class 2 handicap, he presents two qualified runners.
Horse Selection: Glorious Angel
Glorious Angel finished a close second in this race last year, just a short head from the winner. Now with a favorable draw in stall 8 and the backing of Tuer’s solid statistics, she appears poised to improve upon that performance and potentially secure the win.
Stratford 5:20 PM – Supasunrise
Andrew’s System: Wind Operations Follow-up
Horses returning for their second race following a wind operation tend to show improved performance compared to their initial outings. Although Twiston-Davies’ runners occasionally struggle on their first run back, history indicates a marked improvement on subsequent starts. Notably, his chasers boast a impressive tally—four from 13 have won, showing a profit of £11.50.
Horse Selection: Supasunrise
Supasunrise showed promise on his return from a wind operation with a strong second-place finish at Southwell. With Twiston-Davies’ track record improving after second outings, Supasunrise looks to be a strong contender in the 2m6.5f handicap chase.
Conclusion
With Andrew Mount’s statistics-based selections in hand, punters can approach these races with greater confidence. Whether you choose to back Strong Belle, Bopedro, Glorious Angel or Supasunrise, the insights provided highlight the potential for value bets this Saturday. As always, remember to gamble responsibly and consider the statistics and form that guide your choices.
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