ALCS/NLCS Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, October 18
As the autumn chill settles in, Major League Baseball’s postseason is heating up with high-stakes games that bring out the best in teams and pitchers alike. For fans and bettors alike, understanding the intricacies of playoff dynamics is crucial. Today, we’re diving into the ALCS and NLCS matchups on October 18, offering expert picks and helpful betting tips to improve your chances at the sportsbook.
Year-to-Date Record
- Overall Record: 180-178
- Prior Article Results: 2-0 (+0.13 units)
Promo Alert for Bettors
Before placing your bets, be sure to explore the latest sportsbook promos available from your favorite sports betting apps. For example, the BetMGM bonus code is currently offering up to $1,500 in first-bet bonuses, depending on your location. This is an opportunity you won’t want to miss, whether you’re new to betting or an experienced player.
MLB Postseason Betting Tips
Pitching Impact
In the postseason, the environment typically yields lower run totals. Therefore, when placing bets, it’s prudent to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed, and increase your bets on strikeout outcomes. Additionally, avoid laying -1.5 runs unless you are in an extraordinary situation, as the competitive nature of playoff games often leads to tighter scores.
Bullpen Usage
During the regular season, starting pitchers account for about 55% of a game’s outcomes. However, in the playoffs, this figure drops considerably due to the strategic deployment of bullpens, especially considering that teams have a day off between games. Knowing how each team’s bullpen has been utilized can significantly influence your betting decisions.
Hitter Props
Exercise caution when considering hitter props in postseason play. With the best pitchers facing off, results can be unpredictable. For safer bets, focus on home run + runs + RBI props for top-four hitters in the playoff matchups.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
A strategic approach to unit betting can help you manage your bankroll effectively. Here’s a simple guideline:
- 1.5 – 2.0 units: Best Bets (full game totals, moneyline or run line play)
- 1 unit: Strong Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Plays
- 0.75 unit: Medium Plays (ML/RL/Totals, Pitcher Props)
- 0.50 unit: Hitter Props, Team Totals
- 0.25 unit: Parlays, HR Props
Matchup Analysis: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
In one of the most thrilling playoff encounters in recent history, the Guardians made a valiant comeback last night. With a two-run pinch-hit home run from Jhonkensy Noel in the 10th inning, they triumphed over the Yankees, bringing the series to 2-1. This shift in momentum could leave the Yankees reeling, providing an advantage to the Guardians as they aim to tie the series at 2-2.
Both starting pitchers are facing challenges. Luis Gil is returning from a lengthy absence since September 28th, carrying a 5.03 ERA. Meanwhile, Gavin Williams, sporting a 4.86 ERA, has not pitched since September 22nd. Given their struggles and the teams’ recent history with run totals—7.0, 9.0, and 12.0—the current total is suspiciously set at 8.0, suggesting value for the over bet.
Picks for Yankees vs. Guardians:
- Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5 Runs: 1 Unit (-120 at BetMGM)
- Guardians Moneyline: 1 Unit (+105 at BetMGM)
Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
The Dodgers are enjoying a potent offensive resurgence, tallying 54 runs in their last nine games (averaging six runs per game). The unpredictability of the scores in this series—9-0, 7-3, 8-0, and 10-2—highlights their dominance. Despite the Mets’ resilience at home, their pitching strategy is unclear, especially after Jack Flaherty’s stellar outing in Game 1.
In light of the Mets’ exhausted bullpen, the smart money seems to be on the Dodgers exceeding their team total, rather than betting against an unpredictable Mets squad.
Pick for Dodgers vs. Mets:
- Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs: 1 Unit (+114 at DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5 Runs (1 Unit, -120 at BetMGM)
- Guardians Moneyline (1 Unit, +105 at BetMGM)
- Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (1 Unit, +114 at DraftKings)
Closing Thoughts
As the postseason rages on, remaining informed about player performances, bullpen usage, and pitching statistics is crucial for making sound betting decisions. Don’t miss out on the best MLB picks and explore RotoWire’s picks tool to maximize your betting potential. Remember, every bet counts as we inch closer to the World Series!
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