Week 7 NFL Picks: Underdog Upsets and Betting Insights for the 2024-25 Season
As we approach Week 7 of the 2024-25 NFL season, anticipation is building among fans and bettors alike. Following a somewhat lackluster opening to the week, NFL enthusiasts can look forward to a thrilling series of matchups on Sunday, featuring 14 games, beginning with an early kickoff in London and culminating in a Monday night doubleheader. This article aims to provide insights into the betting landscape along with my personal picks and predictions courtesy of the Sports Betting Dime (SBD) formula.
Unleashing the Underdogs: A Betting Strategy
In sports betting, particularly the NFL, underdog teams can often provide lucrative opportunities for bettors willing to defy the odds. My betting strategy for Week 7 focuses on these underdogs—teams that not only have the potential to cover the spread but to win outright. Last week proved successful, as I finished with a 2-1 record in upset picks, netting a profitable 1.3 units, while the SBD formula recorded a less fortunate 2-3, resulting in a minimal loss of 0.7 units.
The distinction between these predictions is noteworthy; I’m highlighting one key upset pick which diverges from the SBD formula this week. While my algorithm predicts three potential upset victories, it identifies numerous other games with razor-thin victory margins.
Expert Picks for Week 7
As confirmed, the betting odds will fluctuate closer to game time, given the dynamic nature of sports wagering. Here are my favorite NFL picks for Week 7, including insights based on both expert judgment and computer-generated predictions:
| Expert NFL Moneyline Picks | Computer NFL Moneyline Picks |
|---|---|
| Chiefs over 49ers (+108 at FanDuel) | Patriots over Jaguars (+220 at FanDuel) |
| — | Lions over Vikings (+108 at FanDuel) |
| — | Steelers over Jets (+110 at ESPN Bet) |
The underdogs I am placing my faith in have the potential to change the narrative of their respective seasons, and I invite you to consider these selections as valuable wagering options.
A Closer Look: Chiefs Over 49ers
My highlighted pick for Week 7 is the Kansas City Chiefs to pull off the upset against the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup, taking place in the heart of San Francisco, presents an intriguing battle of offensive strategies. The current odds of +108 for the Chiefs imply they have only a 48.1% chance of securing a victory, which I find to be a favorable situation for betting.
While the 49ers boast an impressive second-ranking in passing yards, it’s their multifaceted rushing attack that truly fuels their offensive prowess. Averaging 5.0 yards per carry, they rank seventh in the NFL for run efficiency, complemented by a high volume of rushing attempts. This ground game is critical for allowing quarterback Brock Purdy to execute play-action passes effectively. However, if Jordan Mason, their emerging star, is hampered by injury, questions arise about the 49ers’ ability to maintain offensive efficiency.
On the defensive side, the Chiefs have built a stout run defense that allows just 3.7 yards per carry, placing them fourth in the league. Their ability to neutralize the 49ers’ ground attack could force Purdy into a more conservative passing game, hampering San Francisco’s overall offensive strategy. History suggests that when the 49ers face strong run defenses, their offensive efficiency tends to diminish.
The Chiefs may not resemble the explosive juggernaut they once were with Tyreek Hill, but under head coach Andy Reid’s guidance, they continue to produce. The depth of their roster, featuring key player contributions from Travis Kelce and the rejuvenated running game, positions them well for a challenging contest. Thus, I’m confident in placing a unit on the Chiefs at +108, believing they can outperform expectations on Sunday.
Pick: Chiefs moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
Final Thoughts
The complexity and unpredictability of NFL betting make it both thrilling and challenging. As Week 7 unfolds, I will remain vigilant for any line shifts or injury updates that may affect these predictions. Factors such as narrow spreads and close matchups lend themselves to strategic betting; thus, I may consider additional plays as kickoff approaches.
For bettors looking to expand their horizons, be sure to explore further insights from my colleagues. Zach Reger has compiled valuable picks against the spread for Week 7, and John Hyslop provides intriguing player prop bets worth considering.
Stay tuned, keep your betting strategies sharp, and may the odds be ever in your favor as we dive into another exhilarating week of NFL action!
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